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Policy brief 127
10 April
TIME FOR A RECKONING
2024-2025 Outlook for the French economy

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OFCE Analysis and Forecasting Department, Eric Heyer (dir.) and Xavier Timbeau (dir.)

French growth is expected to reach an annual average of 0.5% in 2024. This downward revision of our growth forecast from 0.8% in October 2023 is due mainly toweaker than expected  growth for 2024 (ultimately -0.15 GDP point lower for 2024 than previously forecast) and a new 10 billion euro fiscal adjustment program, whose impact on GDP is estimated at -0.2 GDP point in 2024. In 2025, French growth is forecast at 1.2%, despite the positive effects of lower interest rates (0.2 GDP point). But growth will be constrained by the government’s planned new fiscal adjustments of 20 billion euros in 2025 (whose impact on GDP is estimated at -0.6%), as well as by the total abolition of tariff shields. Inflation should fall in 2024 (2.4% after 4.9% in 2023) and be close to the 2% target in 2025. The downturn in the labor market is continuing, due to weak growth in activity and the partial recovery of past productivity losses, which will push the unemployment rate to 8.2% by the end of 2024 and 8.1% by the end of 2025 (excluding the effect of the RSA benefits reform). The saving rate should remain high in 2024, but fall in 2025, supporting consumption despite sluggish purchasing power in 2025 after the rebound in 2024 (0.2%, after 1% in 2024 perconsumption unit). Due to a sharp shrinkage in certain tax bases (real estate, corporate profits, etc.), the public deficit reached 5.5% of GDP in 2023, 0.6 point higher than forecast in the Finance Act for 2024. With the expiry of the exceptional budget support measures and the expected further structural adjustments of 1 GDP point over two years, the public deficit should fall to 5% of GDP in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, despite higher interest charges and the deterioration in the cyclical deficit. After three years of decline, public debt (in points of GDP) is set to rise again in 2024 and 2025, due to lower nominal growth and lower inflation. It should reach 112.8% of GDP in 2025, after 111.9% in 2024 and 110.6% in 2023.


Thursday 2 May - 13:30 CEST
Live | What’s the latest on the European Green Deal?

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with Jérôme Creel (OFCE, Sciences Po) and Eloi Laurent , Emma Laveissière (economics student)
Join the live Event
Voxeurope, in partnership with Sciences Po Paris and the Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE)


LE BLOG

2024-2025 World Economic Outlook: EUROPE TAKES OFF
OFCE Analysis and Forecasting Department, Éric Heyer (dir.) and Xavier Timbeau (dir.)

Pourquoi le chômage des jeunes résiste-t-il à des moyens inédits ?
Bruno Coquet

Un Fonds européen pour le Climat
Jérôme Creel, Fipaddict, Clara Leonard, Nicolas Leron et Juliette de Pierrebourg

Tous les articles du Blog...


LES PUBLICATIONS

Revue de l'OFCE n° 185 : Perspectives économiques 2024-2025 (avril 2024)
PARTIE I.2. TOUR DU MONDE DE LA SITUATION CONJONCTURELLE
I.2. 1. États-Unis : la récession n’aura pas lieu
Christophe Blot
I.2. 2. Allemagne : panne de croissance
Céline Antonin

10 avril - Policy brief N°126
L’heure des comptes : perspectives 2024-2025 pour l'économie française
Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE, Eric Heyer (dir.) et Xavier Timbeau (dir.)

10 avril - Policy brief N°125
L’Europe décroche : perspectives 2024-2025 pour l'économie mondiale
Département Analyse et Prévision de l'OFCE, Éric Heyer (dir.), Xavier Timbeau (dir.)

Toutes les publications...


L'AGENDA

L'OFCE recrute :
- un.e économiste en charge de l’étude de la mise en œuvre et du financement de la transition énergétique (CDD 36 mois)

29 avril
19h15-20h45 -  Conférence : Comme si nous étions des animaux
avec Réjane Sénac
en partenariat avec PRESAGE (OFCE - Sciences Po)
inscription
Sciences Po, Paris

30 avril
11h30 - Séminaire OFCE : Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE)
Working Women in France: A Tale of Two Centuries of Closing the Gaps (avec Montserrat Botey et Miguel Sánchez-Romero)
OFCE, Paris

02-03 mai
Conférence inaugurale de l'Association française des économistes de la population (AFÉPOP)
Appel à contributions
Campus Condorcet
Aubervilliers

7 mai - 11h30 - Séminaire OFCE : François Fontaine (PSE)
OFCE, Paris

14 mai - 11h30 - Séminaire OFCE : Basile Grassi (Bocconi)
OFCE, Paris

28 mai - 11h 30 - Séminaire OFCE : Gauthier Vermandel (Ecole polytechnique)
A New Keynesian Climate Model (with JG Sahuc (Banque de France), & F Smets (ECB))
OFCE, Paris

07 June
20th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic Policy Issues in Europe
Economic Policies amid increasing Geopolitical Fragmentation
Call for Papers
Kiel, Germany

Tout l'agenda...

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